The Hidden Turnover Risk No One Talks About: The First 60 Days of the New Year
Every January, leadership teams start the year with fresh budgets, clean calendars, and cautious optimism.
Nothing feels urgent yet. Dashboards look calm. Calendars are still light. From the outside, it appears to be a stable moment.
And then, quietly, the conditions for turnover line up.
A resignation that “came out of nowhere.”
A high performer who suddenly decides it’s time.
A Q1 backfill no one planned for.
Here’s the truth most organizations miss:
The first 60 days of the year are rarely when people decide to leave. They are when decisions made quietly in Q4 finally turn into action.
Why January Looks Calm on Paper
If you look only at national labor data, January doesn’t appear alarming.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), quit rates in January are often relatively stable compared to surrounding months. There is no consistent, dramatic national spike that shows up every year.
That’s exactly why this risk is easy to underestimate.
Early January is deceptive. The data looks steady, but behavior beneath the surface is shifting.
Job searches increase after the holidays.
Applications pick up once calendars reset.
Recruiter outreach gets more traction.
Conversations that stalled in December restart quickly.
On paper, nothing looks broken. In practice, momentum is already changing.
The Bonus Factor Leaders Underestimate
One of the biggest drivers of early-year movement has nothing to do with dissatisfaction in January.
It has everything to do with patience in December.
Many high-performing, passive candidates do not leave impulsively. They wait. They wait for year-end bonuses to be paid, deferred compensation to vest, commissions to clear, or incentive cycles to close.
By the first week of January, many of those decisions are already made. The bonus check does not create movement. It simply removes the last barrier.
That is why early-year resignations often feel sudden, even when they are not.
This is also why organizations are most vulnerable to losing strong performers who were never actively “at risk” on paper.
Why This Feels Like a Spike Even When the Data Disagrees
Voluntary turnover has cooled from its peak in 2021 and 2022, but it has not returned to pre-pandemic norms.
Recent Mercer data shows voluntary turnover declining into the low-teens, yet still elevated compared to historical baselines. The result is a labor market where movement feels normal, even when it is costly.
Add to that:
Budgets unlocking in Q1
New roles being approved
Recruiters reengaging candidates who paused searches
Leaders making “this is the year we fix it” decisions
And you get what feels like a spike, even if the charts do not label it one.
For many organizations, the most preventable turnover of the year happens between now and early March.
The Turnover That Hurts the Most
Early-year turnover rarely shows up as mass exits.
Instead, it shows up as:
High performers who waited to be paid
Institutional knowledge walking out the door
Roles assumed to be “stable for now”
Leaders who were quietly open to a better story
This is why Q1 turnover is so disruptive. It does not just create vacancies. It derails momentum.
What Smart Leaders Do in the First 60 Days
Organizations that navigate Q1 well do not panic. They prepare.
They use the first 60 days to:
Identify true flight-risk roles and individuals
Revisit compensation alignment and growth trajectory
Hold honest stay conversations, not reactive exit interviews
Pressure-test whether key roles still match business priorities
Most importantly, they assume movement before it shows up.
Because by the time a resignation letter is written in January, the real decision was made weeks or months earlier.
The Real Takeaway
There is not always a headline-worthy January turnover spike.
What there is, every year, is a short window when intent turns into action, bonuses clear, and the market quietly comes back to life.
Leaders who assume January is calm often spend Q1 reacting.
Leaders who understand this pattern use January to stabilize, retain, and reset.
The difference rarely shows up this week.
It shows up by March.
If you are entering the year assuming retention will take care of itself, now is the moment to take a closer look. The most important turnover risks of Q1 are usually invisible until it is too late.